Elections and a nation at the crossroads

by V.S. Sambandan

Beyond the rhetoric, Sri Lanka's future depends on how the victor in today's presidential election interprets the mandate. Sri Lanka's 13.32 million voters have a vital task to perform on November 17.

The fifth Presidential election is about much more than determining whether Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse or Opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe will be at the helm of affairs in the conflict-scarred island-nation for the next six years.

An entire nation is at the crossroads. At stake are several vital components that define Sri Lanka as a nation-state. The most crucial issue is whether the outgoing President, Chandrika Kumaratunga's legacy of a quest for peace through devolution of power to the regions will survive.

Kumaratunga, as the first Sri Lankan Head of State to acknowledge that the Tamils had grievances that had to be met, changed the discourse of the ethnic conflict from the earlier majoritarian viewpoint.

Through her constant and emphatic reiteration that Sri Lanka is a multi-ethnic, multi-lingual, and multi-religious country, she made a dent in the majoritarian mindset and checked the destructive rhetoric of the past.

The essence of the Kumaratunga peace package was that Sri Lanka would have to metamorphose from a majoritarian unitary state to one that acknowledged the legitimate political grievances of the ethnic minorities. This, as the draft Constitutions proposed by her made clear, would have to be through changing the unitary state to one that is a "Union of Regions".

In effect, President Kumaratunga changed not just the State's approach to conflict resolution, but also that of her Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), which was a party that saw the introduction of majoritarian projects such as `Sinhala Only' and standardisation into the Sri Lankan state.

The reversal of Kumaratunga's federalist paradigm by the SLFP's Presidential candidate through his poll pacts with the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) in effect implies a possible re-entrenchment of the unitarists.

Coincidentally, in a curious turn, the onus of ushering in federalism now rests largely on Wickremesinghe and his United National Party (UNP) and its allies. To a large extent, it was the politics between the SLFP and the UNP that aborted the federalist project during Kumaratunga's 11 years as President.

It could well be the time for politics of compulsion for the main two parties - the SLFP and the UNP - to close ranks if Kumaratunga's federalist project is to be carried forward. That both the main Presidential aspirants have promised a consensual approach to the peace process provides the setting for the working of a bipartisan approach.

The November 17 election is also to be seen as a reality check on the popular acceptance of the concept of federalism. In a multi-ethnic democracy such as Sri Lanka, where the largest number of voters are Sinhalese, a literal interpretation of the term "majority" runs the risk of alienating substantial sections of the people, thereby re-entrenching a majoritarian viewpoint.

A more nuanced approach, which factors in the sensitivities of various ethnicities in the conflict resolution process, will be the first priority of the new President.

Sri Lanka's singular political evolution since the 1990s was the mainstreaming of the JVP, which had led two unsuccessful insurgencies against the State.

The mainstreaming of the JVP is evident from its numerical rise in the 225 member-strong Parliament over the years. Critics of the JVP say that other than discarding its violent face, it remains unchanged. However, it is no mean task that the JVP, which once violently opposed Parliamentary democracy, is now vying for high stakes through elections.

Herein is the next legacy of the Kumaratunga Presidency - ushering in the human face of the State. While the Premadasa-led UNP Government picked out the JVP and its supporters resulting in the elimination of its leadership, it was during President Kumaratunga's Governments that the mainstreaming of the JVP occurred. How much the JVP has changed is now an issue that is largely within the parameters of the democratic discourse.

The unfinished task of mainstreaming the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) remains. The tenor of Sri Lanka's leadership for the next six years will determine the manner in which this most serious challenge is addressed.

The developments since the signing of the February 2002 ceasefire agreement - the Oslo communique - in which the Government and the rebels agreed to explore federal models, the stalemate since the LTTE's unilateral pullout in 2003, the consequences of the revolt within the LTTE, the LTTE's proposals for an interim self-governing authority and President Kumaratunga's Post-Tsunami Operational Management Structure (P-TOMS) are significant markers that could help find a way out of the current deadlock.

From the conflict-resolution viewpoint, the Presidential election is also an electoral battle between entrenchment of the unitary, and by implication, a majoritarian State and staying the course on power-sharing leading to federalism in whatever form, resulting in a wider, inclusive state.

There are several external examples to draw from to chart a non-unitarist statute for Sri Lanka. However, the more any proposed change is grounded on home-grown experience, the stronger are its chances for acceptance and success.

Here again the promise of a consensual approach made by Rajapakse and Wickremesinghe provides some scope for optimism and the Kumaratunga draft Constitution a basis for further elaboration.

Yet another issue relating to the peace process is the domestic reception to the role played by an external interlocutor. One attribute of Sri Lanka's conflict resolution experience has been a xenophobic streak when it comes to peace-making.

This emanates from various groups with varying intensity - be it the fierce, militant opposition to the Indian involvement in the late 1980s or the relatively lower key but still shrill verbal campaigns against the current facilitators Norway.

However, a clear trend has been the lowering of the Opposition to an external factor - yet another attribute of the Kumaratunga Governments. As the Prime Minister's main allies - the JVP and the JHU - have minced no words on what they think of the Norwegian facilitation process, the public mandate would also be a sign of things to come.

At stake here is whether the path of relatively lowered resistance to an external player would continue or Sri Lanka would relapse into the late 1980s mould of stiff opposition to an "interventionist." Needless to say, there is also the need for discerning between the justifiable opposition to solutions presented through facilitation and any opposition just for the sake of itself.

The aggregation of these inter-linked issues is whether Sri Lanka would prefer to continue on the decade-long path of conflict resolution through reconciliation or would choose to revert to an entrenchment of the pre-1994 position of a majoritarian state. This is one of several moulds that are on test at the Presidential poll.

On the broad socio-economic front, the electoral battle is also seen as one waged between elites and non-elites. The voter Rajapakse has aimed his campaign at is essentially the common man. In addition to Rajapakse's left-of-centre political background and his personal approach, his roots lie outside Sri Lanka's traditional ruling mould.

Barring the Premadasa presidency, Sri Lankan leaders came from an English-educated, patrician background. Rajapakse, hailing from the rural South, attempts to break this mould. The base of Rajapakse's main electoral ally, the JVP, is very much a factor in determining this outcome.

Though relatively lacklustre, the Sri Lankan election campaign has now ended. It has, however, thrown up several issues that lie beyond the rhetoric.

These include the unitary or not debate at one end of the spectrum and cost of living issues at the other end. It is now time for a polarised Sri Lanka to express itself.

More than anything else, it is the interpretation of the popular mandate by the victor - be he Rajapakse, backed mainly by the majoritarian parties, or Wickremesinghe, overwhelmingly backed by the minorities that will determine the direction Sri Lanka moves in..

The Hindu