Political Stage:

Of real polls and SMS polls
 

BY SCORPIO

WITH the candidates off the starters blocks and the campaign proper now in full swing following nominations, the week that ended saw many dramatic twists and turns in a Presidential race which poll watchers say is too close to call.

The campaign heat has reached such a degree that already State and private TV channels are conducting their own opinion polls displaying the results on their screens. Whether this would be a true reflection of the voter preference is highly debatable.

It is worth noting here that success of these SMS surveys are limited only to the extent of the number of mobile phone users in the country and this leaves out a large swathe of the country's population especially the peasantry and the marginalised, a vast majority of whom are Rajapakse supporters by tradition.

Typical of Sri Lankan politics hardly has the campaign got off the ground than allegations are traded by the main protagonists in this highly charged election drama.

The most serious charge centred around the arrest of Charles Gnanakone said to be a close associate of Wickremesinghe and the disclosure of an alleged plot on the life of the UPFA contender Mahinda Rajapakse.

The latter was given credibility by the earlier appearance on an LTTE Website of a face shot of slain Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar with a sniper's rifle trained on it and another sentence that read "Will Mahinda be able to celebrate his Birthday".

The week itself began with feverish anticipation following the return of President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga to the country and her decision to address a campaign rally of Premier Rajapakse.

The focus was on how the President would address the rally given the speculative rumours of differences between the Head of State and her second in command. There was also much anticipation especially among the Wickremesinghe camp on what the President would say in the event she addressed the rally.

However contrary to expectations the Presidential address was a disappointment from the point of view of the Opposition. If they expected her to create waves they were disappointed and the Greens could not capitalise on her speech.

If anything it made the Rajapakse platform even stronger with the President telling the crowd at Wariyapola to support Rajapakse as they would for her.

Even reading between the lines of President Kumaratunga's speech there was not much the UNP could garner. Other than a passing reference to one of Rajapakse electoral allies, the speech only reinforced the confidence among SLFPers where the President's loyalties lay.

This no doubt would have been a big fillip to Rajapakse to take his campaign forward without the seeds of discord spreading among grassroots members of the party.

The UPFA Presidential hopeful also can be happy with the expanding circle of his supporters during the week with more smaller parties and civic groups pledging their allegiance, not the least of which was one time UNP Finance Minister Ronnie de Mel.

Rajapakse's efforts to assuage the fears of the Catholics and the Christian community in general too appeared to be paying dividends with large attendances at rallies along the Western sea board considered pocket boroughs of the Greens. But Rajapakse would be well advised to put an extra effort in this area.

It is well known that the JHU had not insisted on the Anti Conversion Bill to be included in his manifesto and this point will no doubt be driven home by the Rajapakse camp.

While the Rajapakse camp was enjoying a successful week, the UNP too pulled off a coup of sorts by the return of estranged SLMC strongman M.L.M. Hisbullah into the party fold and pledging his support to Wickremesinghe.

His entry is likely to raise the UNP's fortunes in Batticaloa where the party lost ground at the 2004 General Election. In is interesting to see what Rajapakse's counter move would be to this development with the knowledge that the Eastern vote would be crucial in the final count.

However the UNP knows It cannot count on the North-East vote alone to reach the winning post but should strive for a substantial vote in the South too to offset the gains for Rajapakse in his strongholds. It is perhaps for this reason that the Party is going all out to shore up its fortunes in electorates traditionally unfavourable to the party.

The best example of this is the appointment of one time UNP strongman Sirisena Cooray to oversee the Wickremesinghe campaign in the Anuradhapura District.

It is moot whether Cooray could muster the same force and resourcefulness as he did as head of the victorious Premadasa campaign in 1988. It is perhaps for this reason that UNP leader has made Thilanga Sumathipala party organiser for Anuradhapura.

Though Sumathipala has denied official confirmation of this appointment UNP sources say the former Telecom boss was given the job after Wickremesinghe's disappointment with the crowd attendance during his visit to the Jaya Sri Ma Bodhi.

With campaigning bound to reach fever pitch as November 17 draws near the public are assured of full blooded entertainment as the contenders try all gimmicks and tricks of the trade to woo the electorate to support their victory.