Political Stage:

Post-nominations campaign begins

BY SCORPIO

WITH nominations over and as the political air thickens with raucous debate and slogans all attention will be on the strategies of the two main contenders as the Presidential election campaign enters its crucial phase, with indications of a keen contest.

As analysts would have it is still early days in the race and a clear picture would emerge only once the campaign proper gathers momentum in the final two weeks when the two rivals are bound to throw up some surprises and the unknown element could come into play tilting the balance one way or the other.

Although Prime Minister and UPFA Presidential candidate Mahinda Rajapakse lost the support of the CWC and the SLMC, as pointed out by the Rajapakse campaign team the accumulated vote of these two minority blocs failed to bring victory to the UNP at the 2004 General Election, with the party falling short by as much as 700,000 votes.

Here one has to add up the 500,000 or so votes obtained by the JHU which has hitched its wagon to the Rajapakse camp this time around.

The Bikkhus have vowed to carry out house to house canvassing on behalf of Rajapakse countrywide reminiscent of the 1956 campaign that brought victory for S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike.

The Rajapakse campaign over the weekend has also received a big shot in the arm with the announcement by the President that she would be addressing some of his main rallies.

The appearance of Finance Minister Dr. Sarath Amunugama with the Premier at a pooja at the Dalada Maligawa soon after nominations, also put paid to speculation that the former would ditch the campaign.

The UNP on the other hand while buoyed by the support of the CWC/SLMC combine is counting on the voters in the North-East especially the LTTE controlled areas to deliver for its candidate and fill in the shortfall of the 2004 poll.

But analysts say that a Presidential election is an altogether different ball game unlike a General Elections with different dimensions and dynamics at play where also the personalities of the candidates becomes a crucial factor.

This is where Premier Rajapakse is bound to score heavily where even his bitterest critic will concede that his down to earth style would no doubt capture the hearts of a vast majority of the masses especially in the rural hinterland.

On the other hand Wickremesinghe appears to be still burdened with baggage left behind by the old UNP epitomised by the top hat and tail coat gentry devoted to serving the capitalist class.

Perhaps it is this realisation that got the UNP campaign strategists to persuade their candidate to come to the elections secretariat on nominations sans his customary western attire in order to avoid the stark contrast with the homespun picture of Premier Rajapakse with his simple national costume and the shawl.

Wickremesinghe may also have wished that one of his key frontman did not open his mouth too wide on his preferred choice of attire for the local farmer to follow western trends, which no doubt has antagonised the farmer community known as the backbone of the nation entrenched in its traditional moorings.

The UNP may also have miscalculated its strength vis-a-vis the estate vote and the block vote it anticipates from the East. The influence of estranged CWC stalwarts like Sathasivam or Sennan cannot be easily brushed aside.

These members too can stake claims to a substantial slice of the estate vote which may be one of the reasons that Thondaman is planning to pitch his tent this time around in the Uva Province where the CWC fared only marginally at the 2004 general election.

Coupled with the PA Government's considerable development undertaken in the estate sector in areas such as education, housing and infrastructure development it will not be an insurmountable task for the Rajapakse camp to make profitable inroads into this vote block hitherto taken for granted by all contending parties.

Equally the Eastern vote may also not come on a platter to Wickremesinghe as anticipated given the Karuna factor and much more vigilance is bound to be exercised in the voting in uncleared areas given the blatant rigging which took place at the 2004 poll, which all could prove decisive in the final count.

Analysts also predict a substantial slice of the urban vote for Rajapakse who has always readily identified with the struggles of the proletariat and as a friend of urban working class.

His rapport with these sections is bound to eat into the considerable vote bloc of his rival mitigating the anticipated gains for the green camp in one of its major bastions.

With the race still too early to call no doubt the jostling will be to woo the uncommitted voter and the over 400,000 first time voters whose decision may finally clinch the outcome. With the probable result poised on a knife's edge it is this segment which the two candidates may go for in the last stretch of their campaign.

It is also here that the campaign styles of the two candidates would be tested to the limit. Wickremesinghe's critics argue that although he portrays himself as a technocrat and good manager of the economy most of his promises sound hollow and may find difficulty marketing them to the electorate.

For instance his promise to do away with the dowry system could even raise a hornets nest among the conservative society from which the party draws most of its support.

We are yet to see the manifesto of Rajapakse and it is expected that it will be tailored to cater to the poor and marginalised more than addressing the nitty gritty of abstruse economic theories.

With the campaign throwing up 13 nominees one of them a prominent entrepreneur interesting days are ahead where the electorate would be entertained to various pledges and theories, applying a soothing balm to the frayed nerves of mundane living to the Lankan voter.