What to give a country that has everything? A change of government

BY PIERRE-HENRY Deshayes

WITH its oil-dollars piling up, its generous welfare state and unemployment only ankle-high, one might expect Norway to vote for more of the same in next week's general election, but instead most people appear to be screaming for change.

The United Nations has since 2001 singled out Norway as the country with the world's best standard of living, the OECD has called the Scandinavian country an "economic star", and the IMF and the World Bank have hailed Oslo for good governance.

Despite all the praise however, the current right-leaning, minority coalition government has been trailing in the polls and a left-wing victory is beginning to appear inevitable.

Prime Minister Kjell Magne Bondevik of the Christian Democratic Party caught between the twin threats of his own plummeting voter support combined with a left-wing opposition which, for the first time in decades, is presenting a united front.

"When everything's going so well, why change," an increasingly beleaguered Bondevik has repeated throughout the campaign.And in fact, all indicators seem to be pointing in the right direction.

Unemployment has been boxed in at a mere 3.70 percent, inflation is just slightly higher than one percent and economic growth has been forecast at 3.75 percent this year.

As the world's third largest oil exporter, Norway can also boast a gross domestic product of 36,100 dollars (28,800 euros) for each of its 4.6 million inhabitants, landing it in a global third place, trailing only the United States and Luxembourg.

And while most of the world squirms under the pressure of sky-rocketing oil prices, the country has been celebrating its burgeoning coffers.

Virtually all of Norway's massive oil and gas revenues have been put aside in an oil fund, today valued at some 150 billion euros (188 billion dollars), aimed at ensuring the continuation of its generous social policies even after the black gold has dried up.

Despite all the good news however, there is still one indicator that has the current government shaking in its boots: the opinion polls showing that Norwegians are intent on a change of leadership.

An MMI poll published on Monday credited the left-leaning opposition parties, comprised of the country's largest political party, the Labor Party, along with the Socialist Left Party and the agrarian Center Party, with a combined 49.8 percent of voting intentions, which would ensure them an absolute majority in parliament with 88 of 169 seats.

But while most people appear to be longing for a change of government, there are few calls for a revolutionary change in the way things are actually run.

"Even in the most heated electoral debates, there is no discussion of the relevance of the welfare state, but only of how to perfect it," an editorial in Norway's paper of record Aftenposten said recently, stating in the words of a former Labor Party leader that "We are all Social Democrats".

The Labor Party's decision to create a leftist coalition for the first time in history has greatly increased Labor leader Jens Stoltenberg's chances of obtaining a parliamentary majority.

Stoltenberg himself has also gained in popularity during the campaign by promising to spend more of Norway's riches on schools, healthcare and the elderly.

"It is perhaps exactly because Norway is so rich that the government finds itself in the delicate position of having to explain why it has not done more in these areas," Jo Saglie, a political scientist at the University of Oslo, told AFP.

According to official statistics, the number of people considered poor in Norway increased by nearly 25 percent between 2001 and 2003, jumping to 235,000 people in all, or 5.2 percent of the population.

Lars-Erik Larsen, who is currently in a retraining program to become a teacher, is one of the people who will vote for change.

"I can explain my decision with a hope for a warmer society than the cold and greedy one that we have today," he said.

"As riches pour through our pipelines on a daily basis, it is unbearable that all political decisions are boiled down to calculations of costs and revenues," he added.

The government meanwhile claims that the opposition's promises, if carried out, could put a dent in the country's economic prosperity.

"Each time there is an election campaign, people want more of everything," Finance Minister Per-Kristian Foss told AFP.

"The left wants to raise taxes (to finance its promises) and we want to lower them. But they've been careful not to reveal what part of the population will have to pay," he claimed. (AFP)