Buffer Zone concept vindicated

TUESDAY night's alarm over another tsunami may have proved unfounded - and we are thankful that this is the case - but it has vindicated President Kumaratunga's position that a 100 meter Buffer Zone in our coastal areas is a must, from the point of view of the people's security.

If the tsunami warning proved correct, we would have had a horrifying action replay of the devastating tragedy of December 26, 2004, if the coast-based populace paid heed to the bizarre reasoning of the opposition and remained in their places of residence.

However, practical wisdom prevailed among the people and they fled the coast on being informed of a possible second round of devastation.

True, it turned out to be a groundless scare but it clearly helped establish the point that the re-establishment of human settlements on the coastline could be an invitation to another mammoth human tragedy.

Therefore, President Kumaratunga's 100 meter rule has been proved correct while the opposition's campaign to the contrary has been exposed for what it is - vote-catching, opportunistic sloganeering.

As explained by President Kumaratunga herself, as a people-friendly government the administration headed by her was compelled to give priority to the safety of the people, rather than think of the votes which would come their way by taking a populist line on the Buffer Zone proposal.

In fact, it needs to be remembered that the Government was advised on the issue by, among others, international seismographic experts. Therefore, the 100 meter Buffer Zone proposal is no figment of anyone's imagination. It is based on hard, scientific evidence and cannot be disputed by rational persons.

This only proves the irrationality of the opposition and exposes its futile posturing with a view to catching votes. What would a dental surgeon know about complex geological phenomena? Yet, it is such a personality who spearheaded the UNP campaign against the Buffer Zone proposal and misled, among others, no less a person than the Leader of the Opposition.

We call on these opportunistic opposition politicians to abandon their mindless pursuit of power and join the Government in the momentous task of rebuilding the country. Obviously, human lives have to be treasured above votes. But the opposition seems to be standing morality on its head, in its demented pursuit of power.

A lucky escape

JUST three months after the December 26 tsunami, we experienced it again - almost. There was a big difference this time. We had been bitten once and knew that we had to be wise before the event.

Thus, as soon as seismological stations reported the 8.7 quake of Sumatra, electronic media picked it up and flashed a warning to coastal residents to move inland. In the end, there was no tsunami, but the mass exodus proved that we are ready to face any eventuality.

Scientists had in fact warned just one week back that another big quake could strike the region. Their 'prediction' (conventional wisdom has it that earthquakes cannot be predicted with any accuracy) was spot on. They had stated that an earthquake was imminent. "When it comes to earthquakes, lightning really does strike twice," was their analogy.

Prominent seismologists are already talking about a third 'big one' off Sumatra. The theory is that this particular region has seismic cycles of between 150 years and 200 years.

The December 26 event caused extreme disruption, and one possibility is of a cascade of quakes. "Cascade earthquakes" - a series of earthquakes that decline in magnitude until the tension is eased - are a known phenomenon in seismology.

They fear that the region could be seismically unstable for as along as five more years, during which tsunami-generating earthquakes could occur regularly. This is a 'fact of life' that we have to live with not only for the next five years but also for the decades ahead.

Tsunami or no tsunami, we have realise that we now live in an earthquake zone. One Edinburgh-based scientist has gone on record saying the seismic movements around Indonesia are "likely to go on for millions of years".

There are various theories that try to explain the absence of a tsunami following Monday's massive earthquake off Sumatra. One view is that it did not cause a tsunami because the Earth must have moved downwards rather than upwards even though it was almost similar in force and depth to the December 26 quake.

The Indian Ocean Rim countries were lucky to escape another tsunami, but there is no guarantee that the story would end there. One thing is very clear: the heightened risk underscores the need to swiftly set up a tsunami early-warning system for the Indian Ocean.

The Indian Ocean region does not have undersea sensors and monitors for detecting tsunamis. Until such an elaborate system is established, we will have to issue tsunami warnings whenever an earthquake occurs in the region. Be safe, rather than sorry, is the message.