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Needed: An early warning system

The death toll is still rising Asia-wide after Sunday's cataclysmic tsunami waves, which were triggered by one of the biggest earthquakes ever. The earthquake, which registered 9.0 on the Richter Scale, has literally jolted the Earth and changed Asia's map.

The question that is being asked most frequently now is whether the death toll in the nine countries could have been much less if there was an early warning system. There was a two-to-three hour gap between the Earthquake and the time that the first killer waves struck coastlines of India and Sri Lanka. With a fast, efficient warning mechanism, it could have been possible to evacuate thousands of people from the affected areas before the waves entered the shore.

The bitter truth is that none of the countries affected by this unprecedented disaster had such a capability. Sri Lanka has an earthquake detection centre in Pallekele, but it does not have the additional capacity to predict tsunami formation.

Japan is the only Asian country which has an advanced tsunami warning system, but there is no specific system to monitor tsunamis in the Indian Ocean, which last saw tidal waves as far back as 1833. Thousands of lives could have been saved if a similar alert system to that in Japan/Pacific Ocean had been in place in the stricken countries.

Now that we have experienced one of the most devastating tsunamis in history and practically witnessed the formation of a new Earthquake fault line in the area, no time must be lost in installing an Indian Ocean earthquake/tsunami warning system.

It should be a collective effort by all Asian countries, regardless of whether they were affected by the catastrophe or not. Coastal nations in Africa, which was also affected to a lesser extent by Sunday's tidal waves, could join this endeavour.

In this context, it is heartening to note that international disaster officials are planning to lay down the groundwork for a life-saving and urgently-needed tsunami alert system next month.

The Indian Ocean system should be fully integrated with earthquake/tsunami monitors around the world. Early warning data is picked up from these seismic monitors, as well from sea level gauges and undersea gauges that can detect deadly water columns as they head across the ocean.

The data is sent in real time from satellite transmitters to the sophisticated monitoring stations manned around-the-clock by scientists. The scientists then ensure that the information coming in tallies with other data and produce a computer model that translates the data into an 'event' in order to see if it poses a threat to people.

Talks about setting up a warning system similar to the one in the Pacific Ocean will take place at the UN-sponsored World Conference on Disaster Reduction in Kobe, Japan, says Dr Laura Kong, director of the International Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii.

This is a step in the right direction that could potentially save thousands of precious lives in the future. Developed countries with advanced earthquake detection equipment, such as USA and Japan should play a major role in this exercise.

Developed countries should also consider increasing their funding for the International Oceanographic Commission (IOC)'s cash-strapped International Tsunami Warning Center, which shares its Hawaii facilities with the US weather service's Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

International cooperation is essential as a regional earthquake/tsunami system would cost tens of millions of dollars. It would not be 100 per cent foolproof, but it could save lives in the end.

The investment is certainly worth it. Costs may be reduced as seismic monitors already in place in Asia could provide part of a basis for the tsunami warning system.

All affected and non-affected countries in Asia should pool their resources to commission such a system, which can be manned by expert personnel from within and outside the region. Once a warning is issued on the direction and the strength of the waves, coastal dwellers can seek safety. As one expert has said "it often doesn't take that much to escape a tsunami - all you a have to do is run five or 10 minutes away from the beach and you should be safe".

Asia has suffered enough. There is absolutely no excuse for delaying the implementation of a tsunami warning system. The sooner they begin working on it, the better.

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