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| Saturday, 6 November 2004 |
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In second term, Bush legacy depends heavily on Iraq By Carol Giacomo, WASHINGTON, (Reuters) U.S. President George W. Bush's foreign policy legacy will be determined more than anything else by Iraq, where some experts say more realistic U.S. policies are needed in Bush's second term to keep the venture from failing. Bush insisted during the just-ended election campaign that America's efforts to establish democracy in Iraq are proceeding as planned and no adjustments are needed. But Iraq's chaotic security environment - characterized by a growing insurgency, mounting casualties, fitful reconstruction, lack of jobs and the political alienation of Sunni Muslims - has led others to conclude Bush is wrong. The instability, coupled with declining U.S. support for the war effort, confronts Bush "with the prospect of ... catastrophic and strategic failure" in Iraq, said Martin Indyk, former U.S. ambassador to Israel. In Iraq, Bush's first challenge is to "take off the politically driven and ideologically driven blinders that led the president to assert during the election campaign that everything is on track there. It isn't," said Indyk, now with the Brookings Institution. Immediate fateful decisions face Bush. One is whether to proceed with elections set for January that are key to his vision of a democratic Iraq. Another is whether to order an all-out U.S. military assault on Falluja, the country's most rebellious city now experiencing stepped-up U.S. air and artillery strikes. Iraq's government and its U.S. backers are battling to capture rebel-held cities like Falluja and pacify the country to prepare for the elections. Larry Diamond, former adviser to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, said an assault would undermine a potentially significant new initiative that could defuse the insurgency and persuade rebel Sunnis to join the political process. Diamond, of Stanford University's Hoover Institution, said a coalition of radical Sunni nationalists and Islamists have proposed conditions for their participation in elections. They include appointment of international observers like former U.S. President Jimmy Carter and a promise that U.S. and British troops will be confined to barracks within four weeks of the election. "These demands are serious and feasible and what they are signaling is a willingness to play the electoral game," he said in a telephone interview. Indyk, at a Brookings program, said January elections might inflame violence if angry Sunnis, who controlled Iraq under Saddam Hussein, feel alienated from politics and find themselves dominated by Shias. Suggesting polls should be delayed until the situation stabilizes, Indyk said: "It's very important in this process to understand that elections do not equal democracy." But Judith Yaphe of the National Defense University said Iraqis are insisting elections go forward, in part because they would legitimize the government. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has suggested polls could be held as scheduled in some parts of the country and delayed where violence remains a problem. But Daniel Serwer of the United States Institute of Peace said this is unworkable and would undermine faith in the process. Although Washington has insisted polls will for go forward in January, experts say security concerns and technical preparations may indeed force a three or four month postponement and this could be accepted by key Iraqis if they believe maximum effort was made to hold the polls in January. Rumsfeld and military commanders have hinted at a reduction in U.S. troop levels - now at 135,000 - some time after the elections, if the security situation stabilizes and Iraqi units can handle more responsibility. But chief Pentagon spokesman Lawrence Di Rita insisted on Thursday there was no time line for a withdrawal. Retired U.S. Army Col. Andrew Bacevich, a Boston University professor, said Washington may need to scale back its goals for Iraq in order to reduce U.S. troop levels any time soon. To prepare for elections, the Pentagon has extended the tours of some U.S. troops and there is speculation more forces may be needed. But Bush told reporters on Thursday Rumsfeld and military commanders have not raised this issue with him. |
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