Archives

by S. T. Hettige, University of Colombo

While many people have already commented on the election results, the purpose of this short essay is to highlight a few factors that have decisively affected the outcome.

The decline in popular support recorded by the UNP at the general elections is remarkable and deserves careful attention.

Overall result points on the fact that two issues have dominated the voting behaviour of a majority of voters. They are (a) economic and social policy and (b) political culture.

The whole issue of peace that the UNP concentrated on has been relegated to a secondary place. This is understandable due to the fact that, given the relative peace that prevailed over the past two years, it became a secondary issue in the minds of the voters. The issue of peace was critical in 2001 when there was no peace in the country!

The neo-liberal economic policy that the UNP regime pursued at the expense of the well-being of the lower social strata, particularly in rural areas, has been rejected by a clear majority of voters.

When I pointed out that this policy that privileged the business elite was adversely affecting a lot of people, as social sector services were increasingly neglected, the official response was rather dismissive of my argument. Now that the people have expressed their views and the government is back in the opposition.

In a number of articles I published towards the end of 2002, I pointed out that "political culture matters". The appointment of a scandalously large number of ministers, irresponsible behaviour of some of the Cabinet ministers, politicization of State institutions including the State-owned media, etc., resulted in widespread resentment and anger among ordinary people and, this was clearly evident in the media.

In my articles, I pointed out that the deterioration of political culture, as was evident in the above state of affairs, would eventually undermine the credibility and popularity of the regime. Yet, there was no sign that the leaders had taken note of such criticism. Now, they have paid the price for their indifference and arrogance.

The issue of political culture has had an impact on the main opposition as well. The SLFP that has consistently refused to bring in new and dynamic people into its fold and has retained the old players has been humiliated by the defeat of many such old hands, often at the hands of relatively unknown JVP candidates in the provinces.

Most SLFP candidates have polled less than their JVP counterparts in various districts in both urban and rural areas. As in well-known, PA regimes since 1994 were also characterized by a serious credibility problem due to the behaviour of some of its key players.

Political culture was an important issue during that period as it has been under the UNP regimes including the most recent one. The formation of an alliance with the JVP and the assurances given by the JVP leadership that it will not allow corrupt PA politicians to have their own way no doubt had a major impact on the outcome of the poll.

Nevertheless, a significant number of sub-urban voters, particularly those belonging to the middle class, do not appear to have been convinced as the good performance of the JHU indicates.

It is clear that the majority of those who have voted for JHU are not Sinhala nationalists: many of them are, in fact more privileged urban middle class voters who can survive under any economic regime. In a way, they appear to have betrayed the hapless rural voters who have been adversely affected by the economic and social policies implemented by the UNP regime.

These lower class voters in rural areas needed a stable - social democratic regime in Colombo but what we are going to have in the immediate future is far from a stable regime that can take decisive measures to address their problems. Those who voted for JHU are largely responsible for this state of affairs.

As is clear from the election results, the gap between Colombo and the rural hinterland has never been so startly demonstrated, compare the voting patterns in Colombo with those of Hambantota, Anuradhapura and Monaragala. Who benefited from the recent economic policies and who did not have become quite clear when most Colombo voters opted for the UNF while most rural voters sided with the alliance.

Another outcome of the April 2 elections is that, today, we are further away from the prospect of building consensus to address critical national issues. Alliance has promised a lot to the voters.

On the other hand, its ability to deliver goods largely depends on political stability. Since the alliance does not have an absolute majority in the parliament, an understanding with other groups with sufficient votes is critical for the formation of a workable government. Such an understanding requires thus to compromise on certain issues and this can lead to allegations and counter allegations.

On the other hand, there is no other option in the short run. If the leaders are careful and maintain their credibility and public confidence by adhering to norms of good governance, and implementing sound social and economic policies, the sectarian groups that thrived on the issue of political culture are more than likely to witness a gradual erosion of their support base.

It is the responsibility of the national leaders to win back the floating voters who supported sectarian groups at the April 2 General Elections. For this, the political parties should become more open and democratic so that they can grow and expand, rather than remain fossilised.

Political parties should not remain trapped in the hands of vested interests but become accommodative of new ideas and talents. If this does not happen, the new Buddhist sectarian group is likely to gain more public support leading to a further fragmentation of the electorate. Such a development can be hardly conducive for social and economic development.

There are three major challenges before the new government. They are (a) promoting economic growth (b) revamping social sector programmes and (c) finding a negotiated settlement to the ethnic question. All these three are inter-connected and therefore, need to be pursued simultaneously.

Without economic growth, it is not possible to provide income and employment opportunities to the unemployed, the under-employed and other low income groups.

Without economic growth, the government cannot expand its revenue base without which the resources needed to revamp health, education, public transport, poverty alleviation, social insurance, etc. Social sector programmes are critical for improving the living standards of the lower social strata.

And finally, the resolution of the national question is critical for the creation of a socio-political environment that is conducive for sustainable economic and social development in the country.

If we go by what has already been declared by the Alliance leaders including the President and the Prime Minister, it appears that the leaders in the country have internalized the message that a majority of the people recorded with their votes on the day of the general elections.

The message is loud and clear: "leave behind old politics; get serious about the problems facing the country and its people". On the other hand, there are no ready-made solutions to the problems in each of the three main areas mentioned above. In fact, there is a need for serious policy analyses in these areas in order to identify the most suitable strategies and options.

www.Pathmaconstruction.com

www.ceylincoproperties.com

www.ppilk.com

www.crescat.com

News | Business | Features | Editorial | Security
Politics | World | Letters | Sports | Obituaries

Produced by Lake House
Copyright © 2003 The Associated Newspapers of Ceylon Ltd.
Comments and suggestions to :Web Manager