Archives

Impressive Freedom Alliance lead in independent opinion poll

The results of a snap poll taken by the Centre for Policy Alternatives shows that 61 per cent of the people are of the view that the United People's Freedom Alliance has more chances to come to power as against the United National Front's 29 per cent.

The snap poll was conducted from March 5 to 12, 2004 in 18 districts.

Sixty three per cent say they were better off economically two years ago than now, while 47 per cent are of the view that Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe will be able to handle the peace process effectively as against 44 per cent for President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga.

To the question whether they think the President did the right thing by dissolving the Parliament, 50 per cent endorsed it while 27 per cent felt that the problems should have been sorted out. With regards the integrity of the two leaders 52 per cent said that President Kumaratunga was the more honest of the two, while, 33 per cent felt Prime Minister Wickremesinghe was the more honest.

Sixty per cent of the people were of the view that the President will not compromise the country's interest, while negotiating peace, while 28 per cent were for the Prime Minister.

Asked to indicate one political party/alliance which they believe will best handle the following if they were to form a Government after the election, the voter's assessments are as follows : -

Preserving law and order of the country - UPFA 37.6 %, UNF 25.1 %

Providing health and education _ UPFA 37.5 %, UNF 25.7 %

Combatting corruption _ UPFA 38.1 %, UNF 16.2 %

Reducing unemployment - UPFA 40.3 %, UNF 19.7 %

Reducing cost of living - UPFA 40.0 %, UNF 20.6 %

Handling of the peace process - UPFA 30.3 %, UNF 46.3 %

Snap Poll Result 1

Phase 1

The study was being conducted across 18 out of 22 Districts in SriLanka. The Objective of this exercise was to measure the certain issues pertaining to economic well-being, security issues and elections feedback. Please note that the study has been done independently and in no way connected political parties. The figures may change during consecutive studies.

The margin of error would be in the range of 6-8%. Overall 2,700 contacts have been made across Gender, Age, Socio Economic status, Rural and Urban. Only Trincomalee was covered in the East and the North was completely left out for security reasons. The sample was selected using starting addresses from the electoral roll and by using right hand rule.

The study clearly indicates that Cost of Living as a single issue that bothers more than 80% of the people followed by unemployment with 55%.

The percentage varies across districts (refer graph). The North-East problem, as an issue seems to have taken a back seat currently, because of no-war situation in the last 2 years. This seems to be true across all districts except Trincomalee where Ethnic problem tops the list. Perhaps they are most affected of the lot.

The study also indicates that the high cost of living seems to be a recent phenomenon, for the last 2 years, as 63% feel so. Similarly the sense of security was high during the last 2 years than before (69%). 61% of all people feel that UPFA has a better chance to come to power.

However it is not uniform across all districts. The strong favourable districts for UPFA are Gampaha, Galle, Hambantota, Puttalam, Anuradhapura and Moneragala. The favourable Districts for UNF are N. Eliya and Trincomalee.

When it comes to handling the peace process effectively, both the President and the PM have got equal score, with PM scoring marginally better. Here again there are positive and negative districts for both President and PM (refer graph). 50% of the Sri Lankans feel that the President did a right thing by dissolving the Parliament and only 27% feel other wise. Here again Districts like Colombo and Puttalam are not favourable to dissolution act.

Phase 2

There seems to be serious concerns with regard to culture getting diluted. Close to 2/3rds of the people feel that the threat from the Church and Foreigners is highly visible. The same percentage of people also feel that the donor nations are trying to push their culture. Effectively the threat to the basic culture could become one of the main concerns, if not checked at the right time.

When it comes to honesty CBK is way ahead of RW. Here again the perception varies across Districts. Ranil is ahead in N'Eliya, Puttalam and Kegalle whereas in most of the other Districts CBK is ahead (except Matale where both have scored equally).

Sri Lankan people seem to have more faith in CBK than RW when it comes to negotiations with LTTE. Except 1-2 Districts all the districts are favourable towards CBK.

All Island

There is a general feeling that Sinhala buddhists are under threat from the church and donor nations - 65%

There is a feeling that some external powers are diluting the culture of Sinhalese - 69%

The chances of donor nations pushing their culture is very high - 64%

The majority of Sri Lankans (63.2%) express their dissatisfaction with the country's economic situation when compared to a year ago. When asked about their personal economic situation, 59% believe that it has worsened while only 17% believe it to have improved. Interestingly, the majority of the Tamil community (63.3%) believes that the economic situation of the Tamil community has improved since last year.

However, only 26.7% of the Up Country Tamil community share the same view. 69.5% of the Sinhala community and 44% of the Muslim community indicate that the economic situation of their respective communities has worsened during the last year.

Deep disappointment with the prevailing economic situation is reflected in 61.6% of respondents stating that the Cost of Living is the most important issue concerning them on a daily basis.

Opinion is divided regarding the UNF government's overall performance in the last two years with 38.6% saying that the UNF has done a god job with 44% saying they have done a bad job. In order to identify the areas in which the UNF has performed favourably and unfavourably, six main areas were individually classified.

These areas are handling of the Peace Process, drawing on international support, reducing the cost of living, reducing unemployment, combating corruption and preserving law and order. There is a high level of satisfaction with the UNF's handling of Peace Process and drawing international support - with 62.7% and 51.3% respectively. With regard to all the other issues, there is a high level of dissatisfaction, registering between 60.6% with regard to combating corruption to 72.5% with regard to reducing the cost of living and 75.3% with regard to reducing unemployment.

When questioned on the necessity of general elections at this juncture, 48.7% are in agreement while 34.1% disagree. When asked whether the President was justified in dissolving the Parliament, 49.3% agree and 40.5% disagree. The survey also reveals that 89% of the Sri Lankans intend on voting on April 2, 2004.

In identifying reasons for voting for a particular party, the survey found that 35% of Sri Lankans vote for a particular party/alliance because they believe it is best suited to run the country, 25.2% vote for a party because they believe that no other party represents their beliefs and 12.7% vote according to family loyalty and tradition. Of the people surveyed, 34.6% of those who are undecided as to which party they will vote for indicate that the key factor in making up their minds will be a candidate/party's ability to run the country.

UNF members are more likely to vote on the basis of loyalty and family tradition (23.7%) and UPFA voters on the basis of ideology. The vast majority of Sri Lankans (74%) say they will vote against a candidate involved in election violence and/or malpractices.

Given the record of past election violence and malpractice, the study attempted to capture public perception and anticipation on this issue. The question was asked whether people agree, disagree, neither agree nor disagree with the statement that, "The periods of pre-election, election day and its aftermath will be very violent",

The majority (67%) agrees with this statement, 20% disagree, while 13% neither agree nor disagree. When asked, "There will be very few election malpractices in the forthcoming general election of April 2004" opinion was divided. 41% agree with the statement, 39% disagree with the statement, while 20% neither agree nor disagree.

A comparative survey of the UNF and UPFA reveals that people clearly believe the UNF has been the better party to handle the Peace Process (46.3%). With regard to combating corruption, the UPFA clearly scores higher than the UNF.

The figures being 38.1% and 16.2% respectively, However, the majority of respondents (45.6%) believe that neither party is capable of combating corruption. The UPFA also scores higher than the UNF on the ability to reduce the cost of living, reduce unemployment, provide health and education and preserve law and order. Of particular note is that as many or more people indicate a lack of confidence in the ability of either party to tackle the aforementioned issues. The one notable exception is the Peace Process (Refer Fig 16).

On the topic of who is best suited to run the country, 34% feel that Mrs. Chandrika Kumaratunga is best suited to run the country, 29% believe that Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe is best suited to run the country, while 23% feel that neither Ranil nor Chandrika is suited to run the country. The study shows that Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe is popular amongst Tamil, Upcountry Tamil and Muslim communities. Mrs. Chandrika Kumaratunga's majority lies within the Sinhala community.

There is a small group of UNF supporters who feel that Mrs. Chandrika Kumaratunga is best suited to run the country (Refer Fig 19) 37.7%. The undecided voters believe that neither Mr. Wickremesinghe nor Mrs. Kumaratunga is best suited to lead the country. Furthermore, Mrs. Kumaratunga appears to have a slight majority over Mr. Wickremesinghe amidst the undecided voters.

A majority of respondents (55.2%) indicate that the top priority of the next government should be a reduction in the price of essential goods. 21.2% believe that recommencement of the peace talks should be given priority.

The maintenance of the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) receives 43.8% approval. When this is broken down into party affiliation, 69% of UNF supporters indicate that the CFA should be maintained. 25.8% UPFA supporters indicate that the CFA should be maintained while 36.8% of UPFA supporters indicate that the CFA should be maintained with some adjustments.

In the "undecided" camp, 67.7% indicate that the CFA should be maintained with or without adjustments.

When surveyed on proposed constitutional changes, 43% support the abolition of the executive presidency and 37% agree that the PR electoral system should be changed. However, with regard to the former, 37% either have no opinion, are not sure or neither agree nor disagree. In the case of the Proportional Representation electoral system, the figure for this category is 43%.

On the question of Sri Lanka needing a Federal Constitution, 46% fall in to the Don't know/Not Sure category. Only 17% support this proposition and 26% disagree.

The survey shows a high percentage of the people, who express their inability to comment on the impartiality and efficiency of the Election Commissioner, 41.8% believe that the Election Commissioner is impartial, and 49% feel that he is efficient.

An overwhelming majority of Sri Lankans express that it is essential to have both local and foreign monitors in the forthcoming general elections and 82% Sri Lankans believe that this Combination will contribute positively to a free and fair Election.

In conclusion, it is clear that whatever the outcome of the general election, the majority of Sri Lankans want economic relief, in particular the cost of living to be reduced and the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) to hold.

www.Pathmaconstruction.com

www.ppilk.com

www.crescat.com

News | Business | Features | Editorial | Security
Politics | World | Letters | Sports | Obituaries

Produced by Lake House
Copyright © 2003 The Associated Newspapers of Ceylon Ltd.
Comments and suggestions to :Web Manager