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| Monday, 16 February 2004 |
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| General Elections - 2nd April 2004: Bonus seats will banish UNP from controlling Parliament! US AID Deputy Assistant Administrator Mark Ward has warned at a press conference at the American Center in Colombo Friday that political instability could jeopardise overseas support for Sri Lanka. If Ward's warning is taken seriously by Sri Lankan voters polling at the forth coming general elections, they would all vote for the United Peoples Freedom Alliance to take control of Parliament and put an end to the political instability caused by the conflict between the Executive Presidency and Parliament. Mangala Samaraweera, former PA Chief Opposition Whip told a group of young professionals, Saturday, when the group met him to pledge support to the UP Freedom Alliance. Since the President will remain President till 2005, change in the party-controlling Parliament, from UNF to the Freedom Alliance, is the only way to ensure stability, he added. A former UNF Minister from the hills notorious for his virulent attacks on the judiciary, meanwhile, was confronted with the report of two adhoc researchers assisting him, painting the gloomy prospects of the UNP losing at the polls, much to his disappointment. The ex-Minister's researchers had analysed the results of the December 2001 General Elections when the UNF was at the height of its popularity. They told the boss that, "bonus seats will banish the UNP from controlling Parliament." In the December 2001 elections, the PA and the JVP together polled 4,146,168 votes (46.29%) while the UNF polled 4,086,026 votes (45.62%). The PA and the JVP, by contesting separately, lost the bonus seat to the UNF in ten districts, though the PA and the JVP polled more votes than the UNF in all those ten districts. The UNF secured a lead over the opponents, by winning by very narrow margins in five more districts and a comfortable lead in only one district - Nuwara Eliya. The analysts pointed out that in 2001, notwithstanding the unpopularity of the PA caused by the drought which forced water and power cuts, the PA and the JVP got more votes than the UNF in the electoral districts of Anuradhapura, Galle, Gampaha, Hambantota, Kalutara, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Matara, Polonnaruwa and Ratnapura, the ten districts. With the Alliance in place in 2004, and the UNF's current wave of unpopularity, the UNF will lose to the Freedom Alliance all ten bonus seats at the minimum, the analysts have pointed out. Additionally, the UNF would lose Puttalam, Badulla and Matale retaining the bonus seat in Nuwara Eliya, Colombo and Kandy. The UNF, they predicted, will lose its 17th district, Trincomalee, due to the adverse security situation that prevailed under the UNF. The UNF, according to the analysts, would face the terrible prospects of losing 14 bonus seats, out of the 17 they won in 2001, and that would mean a difference of 28 seats, since the 14 bonus seats will necessarily go to the Freedom Alliance. They also told the ex-Minister that the PA and the JVP got 79 seats at the 2001 district elections excluding the national list seats, while the UNF got 91 seats, excluding the national list and the five SLMC seats. With the UNP losing the 14 bonus seats, the UNP would at the minimum, secure 77 seats, while the Alliance will secure a minimum of 93 seats at the district level polls, excluding the national list seats, at the 2004 elections, when compared with the 2001 results. With a head start of 93 seats for the Alliance, the President's party will form the next government, the analysts have pointed out. The party securing the highest number of votes in each of the 22 electoral districts gets an additional seat under Article 99 (5) of the Constitution, generally called bonus seats. The ever rebellious ex-Minister who is not known to digesting defeat, promptly called a close confidant of the leading type, the one who enjoys Lasagne at breakfast instead of dinner, had reportedly cried out his analyst's report. Equally promptly came the answer: we are all aware of it. Just add Hakeem's five and Thondaman's three when calculating! "But even that is not enough," the ex-Minister shouted back. Pat came the answer: Deduct ten for JVP chauvinism and for God's sake, don't talk of Hakeem or Thondaman, until April 01! By The Watcher |
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