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| Thursday, 18 December 2003 |
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Security environment in Asia - part 2 by Air Commodore Jasjit Singh, Director, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, New Delhi Extracts from a Paper presented at the First Sri Lanka-India Strategic Dialogue, jointly organised by Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies (BCIS), Colombo, and Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), New Delhi at Colombo, December 4-5, 2003 (Coninued from Frday, December 12) The current phenomenon of what may be termed as the revolution of rising expectations naturally affects the youth more than other segments of society; and their frustrations tend to spill into violence. Under the circumstances they also become easy prey to ideological motivations that seek to exploit them for political ends. In turn this has become a major factor for promotion of ethno-sectarian and extremist religious violence that has adopted the path of militancy, terrorism and insurgencies fuelled by political goals and the lust for power. It is not surprising, therefore, that an overwhelming majority of terrorists and militants across the world are in the age bracket of 15-18 years. It is this phenomenon that has been exploited to create the Mujahideen in Afghanistan in the 1980s, and when that experiment failed to satisfy the creators, the Taliban were created. The rest is history. But the underlying roots of the problems need to be identified carefully since there is risk that actual violence and rhetoric could lead to distortions in analysis and responses. The challenge of the widening gap between expectation and reality in turn requires to be addressed both in terms of ideology as well as practical policy to ensure economic development with social justice are expedited. The balance between social justice and economic growth is essential if the already growing sense of relative deprivation is to be controlled. In specific terms, there is need for greater cooperation in trade, investment and economic development in and among countries of Asia. Sri Lanka and India have already established free-trade agreements and sub-regional groupings besides their commitments to SAARC. These need to be provided greater impetus if we are to face the challenge of the revolution of rising expectations adequately. Transnational terrorism and crime It is in the above context that we have to see terrorism and crime in modern Asia. Globalisation of communications, financial transactions and trade has dramatically expanded the scope and extent of crime and violence. Piracy at sea today is reminiscent of the 19th century crimes. Even illegal fishing in the economic zones of other countries has been a problem area affecting even the maritime environmental balance. Already two of the world's three largest narcotics producing areas are in Asia. This fuels a string of criminal activities across the world. At the same time a phenomenal spread of modern military-specification man-portable weapons have spread into society for a variety of reasons. Highly motivated terrorists have been inventing newer methods of killing innocents across the world. What we need to recognise is the reality of Afghanistan-Pakistan being the epicentre of transnational terrorism. While countries like India who have been directly targeted by the jihadi terrorism promoted and sponsored from Pakistan for more than two decades, the need to build an international coalition against this trend is critical. What we must pay attention to is not only the terrorism that worries the United States, but the spread of the phenomenon in and around our countries extending from Philippines in the east to Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, pakistan itself, Afghanistan, Central Asia and now Iraq besides that in Middle East. Intensification of the Israel-Palestine armed conflict on one side and the escalating violence in Iraq require close objective approach to look for ways and means to reverse the process toward peace and stability. Security in the Gulf Region The US-led wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have had a profound impact on the broader security situation in the Gulf region. The expansion of US military-strategic presence in the Southern Asian region by itself may not either have a negative influence. Many countries are likely to see this presence in positive terms as a factor of stability as indeed Afghanistan perceives it at present. But US position in Iraq, both in terms of the war as well as its ability to find a viable post-war dispensation in Iraq may yet have far reaching and unanticipated consequences. The fact that the war itself had questionable rationale before the war added to the lack of legitimacy in US ability to establish post-war peace. It also made numerous inexplicable but crucial mistakes in the immediate post-war period. For example, it simply de-constructed the state institutions of the country (like disbanding the army, police and even the administrative personnel while doing nothing in the early days to check looting and arson) thus adding to its own problems of stabilisation. In fact it can be argued that by mid-October a second Iraq War has started which may well lead to unforeseen consequences. The biggest problem is not so much whether the United States finds some sort of a solution to the stabilisation of Iraq, but how far does its difficulties encourage perceptions of a super power on the back-foot and in a quagmire. The urgency with which the policy to restore sovereignty to Iraqis was initiated may have conveyed the impression of a level of urgency to pull out from at least the responsibility of governing Iraq at an early date well before the US goes into presidential elections processes. It is likely that many in this world would tend to see US difficulties as similar to those of the USSR in Afghanistan. The perception in many quarters that Mujahideen defeated the super power in Afghanistan may yet re-emerge in terms of forcing a withdrawal of the sole super power (as indeed had happened to it in Lebanon in 1983, and Somalia in 1993) by irregular terrorist battles. This would have far reaching impact on future security situation in Asia if not the world. (Concluded) |
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