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Polls in four Indian states, a litmus test for ruling BJP

NEW DELHI, Monday (AFP, Reuters)

Voting began for assembly elections in four Indian states, the results of which could have an impact on Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's ruling coalition ahead of general elections next year.

Around 94 million voters were eligible to vote at 102,056 polling stations in central Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh, western Rajasthan and the capital New Delhi.

Around 400,000 federal and state troops have been deployed for the nine hours of voting, which began at 8:00 a.m.

In the fray are 5,348 candidates vying to fill a total of 590 seats, including eunuchs, street hawkers and former princes.

The heavy security deployment came on the heels of reports of pre-poll violence in Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh over the weekend.

Late Saturday, six guards of a Congress candidate were killed in Chattisgarh when a bomb planted by suspected leftist guerrillas blew up the politician's convoy. The candidate, however, was not hurt.

Police reported a candidate in Madhya Pradesh went missing after an election rally Saturday and could have been abducted. In New Delhi, about 35,000 security personnel were deployed to prevent untoward incidents.

Television channels showed people trickling into some of the 222 polling stations in the city despite the winter morning chill.

Polling was expected to pick up during the day as the Delhi government declared Monday a holiday to enable people to exercise their franchise.

Results are expected to be released late Thursday for the elections in the four states along with northeastern Mizoram, which voted November 20.

The entire voting process is being conducted through electronic voting machines rather than ballot papers as in the past in a bid to decrease fraud.

The four states voting Monday are ruled by the Congress party, which is in opposition in parliament but has made strong gains in the last two years in state assemblies.

Opinion polls tip the BJP to win the most important state, Madhya Pradesh, and possibly Chhattisgarh as well.

But despite positive polls, Congress may also be in trouble in Rajasthan, the second most important of the four, where it has not paid public servants for more than two months and where a pivotal royal family is supporting the BJP. Although all four contests are a straight two-horse race between the BJP and Congress, they are not a full dress rehearsal because local personalities and local issues, such as power, water and jobs, will be the deciders.

Nevertheless, the BJP has dubbed the vote "semi-finals" to next year's national ballot.

Some analysts say a strong showing by the BJP - winning two or more states - could tempt it to call an early national election - in February or March - to cash in on the gains and a general sense of optimism after good monsoons.

The national election must be held by October, but a poll between late April and September is unlikely because of the immense difficulties posed by summer, when temperatures soar to more than 50 degrees Celsius in the north, and the monsoon downpours and flooding begin.

New campaigning rules restricting the use of loudspeakers and posters - plus a general feeling of powerlessness among voters outside the cities - have made the elections dull and timid by Indian standards.

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