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Nepal sliding deeper into violence as Maoist attacks escalate

KATHMANDU, Tuesday (AFP) Nepal is sliding into a cycle of violence as Maoist rebels mount daily attacks against an army with increasing political influence and solid support from the West, analysts say.

The Himalayan kingdom has averaged more than 15 killings a day since the Maoists ended a seven-month ceasefire on August 27 and resumed their seven-year "people's war" to overthrow the monarchy, according to a Nepal-based human rights group.

After peace talks failed, the royal-appointed government set up the Unified Security Command which puts the army, whose supreme commander is King Gyanendra, firmly in charge of all counter-insurgency operations.

"Since a bulk of the national budget is consumed by security, the army and the police have to justify their expenses by putting forth an image of crushing the Maoists," said Kapil Shrestha, a political science professor in Kathmandu.

The army used to amount to a ceremonial force, with the police bearing the brunt of Maoist attacks, until Gyanendra deployed the troops after the rebels broke an earlier truce in November 2001.

The army has since modernized with assistance from Britain, India and the United States, including helicopters capable of night raids against the rebels, who run a virtual parallel state in rural areas.

Last week Washington offered a fresh boost to the embattled government, declaring the Maoists a threat to US national security and freezing any assets they may have in the United States.

"The army and police are under strong pressure from the government and public. The support of the United States and Britain boosts their morale. They feel they are superior to the rebels," Shrestha said.

Both sides have dropped any talk of resuming peace negotiations.

The Maoist leadership in a statement accused the United States of working against calls by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and others for resumed dialogue, but the rebels a week earlier said they would not restart talks because of the government's growing "militarization." In Kathmandu, decision-making on the insurgency rests in the hands of the army and King Gyanendra, who has made crushing the rebellion a priority, analysts said.

The king dismissed the elected prime minister in October 2002 and appointed his own government. The five leading political parties have been protesting for months to demand new elections but to little avail.

Former prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala, president of the largest democratic party the Nepali Congress, criticized the increased role of the army in fighting the Maoists.

"This is the first step toward military rule in Nepal," he said.

While the army and defense ministry do not release statistics on deployment, a security source said between 45,000 and 50,000 troops and police were spread across the kingdom.

A Maoist source said there were about 24,000 trained guerrillas organized under two divisions: in eastern Nepal under the command of Barsha Man Pun, whose alias is Ananta, and in the west headed by Nanada Kishore Pun, also known as Pasang.

Independent estimates have put the number of hardcore Maoists at no more than a few thousand.

The Informal Service Sector Center, a human rights group in Kathmandu, said more than 1,100 people have been killed in fighting since the end of the truce, with government forces responsible for about 70 percent of the deaths.

The Maoists announced October 22 they would no longer attack infrastructure, in what is viewed as an attempt to build public support. Clashes generally entail the Maoists attacking security posts or patrols or troops battling rebels in isolated areas.

"The Maoists have attacked projects and offices and police posts but have not been able to cause heavy damage to the army setup," political analyst Bhaktendra Dhoj Shah said.

But defense sources said the Maoists were plotting a more dramatic way to show their strength, such as simultaneous attacks on police or army positions.

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