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In a state of flux

Bread & Circuses By Cicero

As the first month of the New Year fades out that much abused term 'co-habitation' has been given its ritual airing by who else but the President's spokesman Mr. Harim Peiris, lately of the Liberal Party. Mr. Peiris has announced to the populace (although we do not know whether this caused serene joy among the multitude so addressed) that they were satisfied with the co-habitation arrangement with the Government. Of course provisos followed. The President and the Cabinet, said the spokesman, should be informed of all decisions concerning national interests in the future.

The media being what it is (a multi-headed monster) other newspapers gave other slants. According to one version the President wanted the Cabinet strengthened with the not so subtle hint that she herself is a member of the Cabinet although for the first time the President holds no portfolio. Another newspaper still in the business of LTTE-bashing screamed that the President had alleged that the LTTE had increased its strength manifold since the MoU was singed with the Government. The message then was the same as before.

Co-habitation there might be but with so many provisions, qualifications and caveats that it might be existing only in the eye of the beholder.

Does a rose by any other name then smell as sweet? The President's spokesman was making his pontifical utterances in the same week that the Prime Minister accompanied by Minister Milinda Moragoda met the President to brief her on current developments chief among which was the progress of the peace process.

According to a press release from the President's own office the discussion also touched on the provision of funds for the Provincial Councils, especially with regard to the implementation of educational reforms. The release further said that the President had inquired in particular whether any progress was being made on the formulation of a constitutional framework for the resolution of issues regarding the structure of the State.

What this convoluted sentence which skirts the controversial 'F' word means is that the President is concerned about the arrangements for power-sharing with the LTTE. Her other concern too is understandable, namely the provision of funds for Provincial Councils most of which are controlled by the PA.

Needless to say, the Government and the LTTE have not even broached the question although Anton Balasingham is on record as saying that the LTTE was ready to consider a federal solution on the basis of internal self-determination. But the President knows that any solution which is arrived at will have to receive her sanction and this is the most powerful punch she packs in her encounter with the Government.

But as her other spokesman (PA) Dr. Sarath Amunugama has said in the course of the current tour undertaken by a parliamentary team (bar the JVP) to study federal systems in Europe, the only solution has to be political and there can be no return to war. Dr. Amunugama and former Labour Minister John Seneviratne are the PA representatives on this delegation.

If the LTTE then is ready to consider a federal solution in a context where a lot of people were expecting them to ask at least for a confederacy, are we to treat the 'F' word as taboo any more ? Dr. Amunugama and even President Kumaratunga know that the least the LTTE will settle for is a federal form of government. But what rankles with the President at least is that the LTTE was not even ready to consider her proposed constitution whereby the name of a Union of Regions, something very close to a federal system, had been sketched out. But the point is whether if she is in power herself at the moment she can offer anything else except a federal system to the LTTE.

The situation get trickier when the very same President in her capacity as the leader of the SLFP (if not the PA) agrees to work in co-operation with the JVP on what are described as national issues. While the SLFP can at least for the moment talk in different voices on the ethnic issue, the JVP is on record as uncompromisingly opposing even the present settlement the Government has arrived at with the LTTE. The President is certainly entitled as a politician to engage in her particular brand of politics but she is also the Head of State, the Commander-in-chief of the armed forces and a member of the Cabinet and indeed presides over it even though she might hold no portfolio.

In fact under the presidential system it is the President who should call the shots although President Kumaratunga has chosen to abdicate that power to the Prime Minister and the Cabinet. But under the constitution she has wide-ranging powers over all areas of the executive arm of the Government and this is what makes the office of President pivotal to the whole process of governance.

Knowing this fully well the President has intentionally decided to assume an ambiguous posture. While making the ritual obeisance to the peace process she nevertheless makes interventions which leave no one in doubt as to her views. At the same time she makes political manoeuvres designed at bringing her party back into power. This is the crux of the matter for the LTTE which as the other player in this game is keenly aware of the President's hand.

This is why Anton Balasingham had described the two seats of power in the Government as the key to the whole question of a settlement. As long as Mrs. Kumaratunga has the capacity to pull the rug from under the UNF Government's feet Mr. Wickremesinghe wears an uneasy crown.

But even on the SLFP front itself new configurations are taking shape. Even as the President moves closer to the JVP the Leader of the Opposition Mahinda Rajapakse is busy cementing other alliances. Mr. Rajapakse scored a major victory when he was able to spearhead the parliamentary campaign which led the Government to climb down on the recent series of labour legislation.

Although the backroom operation was conducted by such trade union leaders as Bala Tampoe of the CMU, Sha of the Bank Employees' Union and Linus Jayatilleke of the NSSP, it was Mahinda Rajapakse who did the honours. On the heels of this triumph the Opposition Leader toured the North recently on the invitation of Minister Maheswaran. Although Mr. Rajapakse was careful not to deviate from the SLFP stand and said that criticisms of the negotiation process did not necessarily mean hostility to the peace process the fact of his visit in the teeth of SLFP hostility to the peace process could not have gone unnoticed. Also the fact that he was accompanied by former Ministers Fowzie and Fernandopulle who are not exactly hunky-dory with the President would have been noted in those quarters and filed for future reference.

It is against this backdrop that observers have begun to perceive a sense of drift on the part of the Government. The chief factor is the cost of living which has again gone up with the increased prices of gas and flour. The increase in the price of flour has led to an all-round increase in all bakery items.

While no Government can be expected to possess a magic wand to bring down prices overnight it is certainly true that people expected a certain amelioration in their conditions of living when it voted for the UNF in 2001. It is perhaps sensing this incipient sense of disenchantment that the Prime Minister has cracked the whip on the foreign travel of ministers. Now with the Cabinet being enlarged again Mr. Wickremesinghe will have to be even more firm if he is to keep a grip on affairs during what is admittedly a volatile situation.

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