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by Lynn Ockersz

The growing uncertainty over the possibility of conducting the 12th SAARC summit in Pakistan next month, points to a marked deterioration in Indo-Pakistani relations and highlights the crippling compulsions of domestic and global politics on the South Asian rivals.

India has been quoted as citing unresolved trade issues as some of the reasons for its inability to make a definitive statement on whether it would be in a position to attend the summit.

However, looming large in the background is the continuously - raging Kashmir dispute and the resultant insurrection which has tended to escalate since the conduct of state level elections and the installation of a Congress - led government in Indian ruled Kashmir. This points to a heightening resolve among rebel forces to escalate the conflict and to underscore their opposition to any form of accommodation with democratically - instituted governments.

However, compounding the tensions in Indo-Pakistani relations was a statement attributed to Indian Deputy Prime Minister Lal Krishna Advani that Pakistan should drop its alleged support for the rebellion in Kashmir or prepare for another war with India over the disputed territory.

"Let us fight it out face-to-face. We have fought thrice, let there be a forth war," Advani was quoted saying. Significantly, Advani was kicking off the ruling BJP - led coalition's state election campaign in the sectarian violence - hit Western state of Gujarat. Referring to two recent bloody attacks on Hindu temples in the state by anti-India rebels which claimed nearly 50 Hindu devotees, the Deputy Premier said that: "Killing of innocent civilians by attacking temples like Askhardham and Raghunath is unacceptable." He explained that it was preferable to have a "fully-fledged war" with Pakistan rather than countenance "recurring terror attacks."

While it is clear that electoral considerations in Gujarat may have prompted the Indian Deputy Premier to adopt what could be termed as an excessively combative stance as regards Pakistan, there is no doubt that this confrontational attitude would not only aggravate Indo-Pakistani tensions but have destabilizing ripple effects on the SAARC process. Whatever official reasons may be trotted out for the uncertainty over India's participation in the next SAARC summit, there is no gainsaying the fact that continuing Indo-Pakistani differences over Kashmir are bound to have a negative fallout on the SAARC process. The big question mark looming over the next summit is the proof of this.

These developments are bound to have both the SAARC community and the West deeply worried, although for different reasons. Non-attendance of India at the SAARC meet could bring the operations of SAARC to a grinding halt and this would mean that SAARC cooperative exercises would be substantially affected. In effect, this would be a drawback for the SAARC masses, wherever they may be. The Western alliance led by the US are also bound to be anxious over this state of affairs because both India and Pakistan are considered front-line states in the battle against terror.

Growing differences between India and Pakistan are likely to weaken the West's operations against terror in South Asia.

While Western pressure is likely to be exerted on Pakistan for the weakening of anti-Western and anti-India rebel groups reportedly based in Pakistan as well as the segment of Kashmir controlled by Pakistan, India too is likely to be coaxed into taking a conciliatory stand on Pakistan, by the West. These pressures are likely to pose perplexing dilemmas for both South Asian rivals. For, both states cannot oblige the West too much in consideration of the domestic support bases they are compelled to placate. In the case of India, it is hard-line Hindu opinion.

In the case of Pakistan, it is the fundamentalist political forces, with whom the centre is seeking an accommodation. This drama is being played out in Baluchistan and the North-Western Frontier Province.

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