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Bread & Circuses By Cicero

While the recently-heard parrot cry of 'cohabitation' has been struck dumb, the contest between the SLFP-led Opposition and the Government appears to have moved to a new level even while the second round of peace talks is being conducted in Bangkok. This is the result of the SLFP, buoyed by the Supreme Court judgement on the 18th and 19th amendments, announcing its intention to make a determined bid to dislodge the Government at the earliest opportunity.

For its part the Government of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe too appears determined not to cave in. Although peacemakers have emerged on both sides to patch up the differences the fissures between the two parties seem not to be amenable to such patchwork attempts which can at best only be temporary palliatives. The consensus of opinion in the Government seems to be that cohabitation is a dead letter and that other means should be explored of ensuring its own stability.

This followed President Kumaratunga's television address two Thursdays ago where she sought to question the Government on its two main planks, the peace process and the economy. While seeking to distance herself from the peace process, she also questioned the wisdom of the privatisation programme of the Government. This was followed last Tuesday by her spokesman Mr. Harim Peiris, who while extending the by now ritualistic good wishes to the peace process, went on to say that it was high time that the peace talks got to grips with core issues.

He made specific mention of the Eastern Province and said that in the case of a Joint Task Force (JTF) or an interim administration the Muslim people too should be included in such a set-up alluding also to the demand that a separate administration should be granted to the Muslims of the East.

The President knows well that the Eastern Province is the Achilles heel of the whole peace process. The Government too is aware of this and this was why this issue was not raised at the first round of the talks although Minister Rauf Hakeem representing the SLMC was part of the Government delegation. While Minister Hakeem was ready to demonstrate a degree of statesmanship on this issue a section of his party decided to jump the gun and put forward their by now famous five demands to the Government.

Exploiting the fact that Mr. Hakeem is not from the Eastern Province these SLMC MPs sought to project themselves as the saviours of the Eastern Province Muslims, who, according to their blood-curdling scenario, were in imminent danger of being brought under Mr. Prabhakaran's iron heel.

The Eastern Province has for long been the powder keg of Sri Lankan politics. For one thing it consists of an admixture of the country's three main communities and remains one of the most underdeveloped provinces in the country.

What is more the Eastern Province Muslims have historically been fearful of being swamped by the northern Tamils particularly after the emergence of the LTTE and it was this fear which the late SLMC leader M.H.M. Ashraff exploited, among others, to establish a powerful political platform for himself and his party while the other national political parties like the UNP and the SLFP were only ready to make token gestures to the Muslims of the East. Even the TULF which sought to project the Eastern Muslims as part of the Tamil speaking community made little attempt to win their confidence.

The LTTE too compounded the situation not merely by their condescending attitude towards the Muslims of the East but by the violence unleashed on them in the 1980s which prompted some Muslim groups to take up militant positions and even talk of an Islamic Jihad. Even after the ceasefire the LTTE's Eastern leader Karikalan took up belligerent positions compelling the LTTE supremo to send him out into the cold.

This situation was greatly defused by the late Mr. Ashraff but with his death a seeming vacuum appears to have been created. Eastern Province SLMC MPs such as Deputy Minister Athaullah seem to resent the fact that Mr. Hakeem who is from Alawathugoda in Kandy-Matale has taken over the mantle. Mr. Hakeem may be young but many still remember the tact and maturity with which he conducted himself as Deputy Chairman of Committees in the 1994 Parliament when the House sometimes became uncontrollable. By contrast Mr. Athaullah and others are parish-pump politicians but that too is their strength since they can project themselves as the native sons.

Also waiting in the wings is Mrs. Ferial Ashraff who has her face turned both towards the SLMC and the PA. She is admittedly committed to carrying out her late husband's agenda and is justifiably worried about the situation in the East but her attitude at this time when she is no longer the SLMC leader has necessarily to be ambivalent.

It was in the wake of this situation that the Government decided this week to appoint an Advisory Committee chaired by Mr. Hakeem and including all MPs of the Eastern Province. Its mandate has been described as 'examining mechanisms and structures which will protect the interests of the Muslims in the Northern and Eastern Provinces including modalities of devolution. 'Mr. Hakeem is on record as say in that the committee will be involved in all three processes of the peace talks, namely the stabilisation of the ceasefire agreement, transitional arrangements and the formulation of the final political settlement.

Whether this will be able to satisfy the dissident SLMC MPs (let alone President Kumaratunga) is, of course, to be seen. That there is still simmering discontent within the SLMC was demonstrated by the heated Supreme Council meeting of the party held on Tuesday night and Minister Hakeem postponing his trip to Bangkok until he met Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe the following day.

But with the statement of Anton Balasingham that the problems of the Muslims in the Eastern Province could be taken up at a tri-partite level (i.e. Government, LTTE and the Muslims) and with the presence of the LTTE's Eastern Commander Karuna at the present round of talks, it could be hoped that something positive could emerge from the on-going round of talks even if only to defuse the situation if not to point at least to the outlines of a solution.

However what the Athaullah faction of the SLMC must realise is that it is playing with fire because feelings can run high not merely in the East but also elsewhere as demonstrated by the scenes at Maligawatte on Wednesday.

While the East seems to have settled down into a uneasy calm and the peace talks shift to the exotic Thai capital the political warfare in the South appears to have moved to fresh battle fields.

This is the result of moves by the SLFP (the LSSP and the CP seem to be out in the cold in this campaign to either form an alternative Government under its leadership or to come to an agreement with the JVP in the event of a future General Election. The Leader of the Opposition Mr. Mahinda Rajapakse (who as we observed some time ago seems to have mended fences with the President) was quoted as saying that they were trying to obtain a majority in Parliament so that the President using her powers could call upon a leader commanding the confidence of the House to form a Government.

This will be in the event of the Government passing a resolution in Parliament for its dissolution. Since the President has reiterated that she has no intention of dissolving Parliament even after the December 5 deadline such a manoeuvre on the part of the SLFP cannot be ruled out.

This possibility was re-fuelled this week by a statement made by the SLFP's General Secretary Maithripala Sirisena who ironically enough was mentioned only last week by a Sunday newspaper as one of the SLFPers who had made overtures to the Government for continuing with co-habitation. In a militant speech made on home turf at Medirigiriya Mr. Sirisena said that there will soon be a SLFP Government. MP Dilan Perera added to the mystery by telling his audience not to ask how they would do this but said that the President had powers for this under the Constitution created by the UNP itself.With both parties on the war path there are several possibilities which can open up. One is that in the light of the new developments in the East the Government would maintain its stability and continue its uneasy co-habitation with the President.

The other is that in the event of the Government not trusting the President not to dissolve Parliament it could follow the Supreme Court ruling and bring in a fresh bill so that all MPs could vote according to their will since the Court has ruled that only a two thirds majority will be needed in the event that legislation is presented to curtail the President's powers of dissolving Parliament within three years rather than the present one year.

This could be passed if the Government is confident of obtaining the support of those SLFP MPs as well who do not want an election.

The third possibility is that enough sections of both the Government as well as the PA will be able to persuade their respective leaderships that real co-habitation rather than its present caricature is the best for the country at the moment.

But is any of this possible with the cloak-and-dagger games which the country can expect in the present uncertain situation?

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