Archives

by Henry Meyer MOSCOW, (AFP) Despite public criticism of US plans to launch a military strike to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Russia is hedging its bets and is quietly negotiating about its role in a post-war Iraq, analysts say.

Russian President Vladimir Putin last week told his US counterpart George W. Bush, who called him as part of a bid to rally international support for his tough stance on Iraq, that he had "serious doubts" about the proposed military campaign.

Moscow has repeatedly urged a diplomatic solution to the stand-off with the Baghdad regime, accused by Washington of developing weapons of mass destruction, based on a return of UN weapons inspectors to Iraq.

Behind the scenes, however, Russian diplomats have been engaged in efforts to wring pledges from the United States about contracts for Russian companies and the repayment of Iraq's eight-billion-dollar debt to Moscow.

"In private, the Russians have already told the Americans, if you decide to attack Iraq, attack it. Publicly we will not be very supportive but we will be understanding," said Vladimir Orlov, director of the PIR Centre for Policy Studies.

"But there are preconditions. First there must be a pretext, second tell us what our role will be in economic development in post-Saddam Iraq. Third we need to be consulted about what the future goverment of Iraq will look like," he added.

Nationalist politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who has close ties with the Iraqi government and is a frequent visitor to Baghdad, said Tuesday he has no doubts that Moscow could sell its traditional Soviet-era ally down the river.

"If Moscow wants to, it can save Iraq. But unfortunately I think that Russia will keep silent when the United States attacks Iraq," he told reporters.

Putin, who has already provoked anger among Russia's political elite and military top brass by his pro-Western policy shift in backing unreservedly the US-led war on terror, has to play his cards carefully. But the Russian president is mindful that years of pleading by Moscow for Saddam to restore cooperation with the UN arms inspectors, who left in 1998 on the eve of a US-British bombing campaign, have led to nowhere.

And unlike the nationalist elite in Russia, he has no illusions about Moscow's diminished global power, said Christopher Granville, chief analyst for the UFG finance house.

"The main interest is to get the multi-billion Soviet-era loans to Iraq repaid (mainly export credits for arms sales) and then resume arms sales and cooperation in the oil and gas sector," he commented.

Iraq announced last month a 40-billion-dollar (euro) economic cooperation pact with Russia that spurred concern in Washington, but Moscow played down the deal saying it was a year-old framework agreement that involved no official price figure.

"This programme will apply either directly, if the Iraqi regime survives against the odds, or else by staking Russia's economic claims in a post-Saddam Iraq," Granville said.

Earlier this month Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov confirmed Western press reports about secret meetings in Washington between Moscow diplomats and senior Iraqi opposition figures, although he downplayed their significance.

Moscow is seen as favourable to French President Jacques Chirac's suggestion that Saddam be given one last chance to re-admit UN arms inspectors.

If the Iraqi leader refuses, according to Chirac's plan, the Security Council would reconvene to decide what measures to take, including possible military action.

Ivanov on September 2 warned that Russia - one of the five permanent UN Security Council members with veto power - hoped that its veto "will not be necessary" and that military action against Iraq would not be raised in the council.

Iraqi Ambassador to Moscow, Abbas Khalaf, told AFP he was confident the Russian position would not change.

"We are satisfied that Russia categorically speaks out against a military solution to the Iraqi question and there is an atmosphere of trust that exists between our two countries," he said.

But respected Moscow-based political commentator, Andrei Piontkovsky, believes that even if public criticism of the US continues, it will be a smokescreen.

"Why should Russia be concerned about Saddam Hussein's survival? Russia is concerned about its economic interests," he said.

News | Business | Features | Editorial | Security
Politics | World | Letters | Sports | Obituaries |

Produced by Lake House
Copyright 2001 The Associated Newspapers of Ceylon Ltd.
Comments and suggestions to :Web Manager