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Cracks open in India's fragile ruling coalition

NEW DELHI, April 16 (AFP) - The political fallout of sectarian riots in India's Gujarat state has opened a rift between the ruling Hindu nationalist BJP party and its coalition allies, but analysts say talk of the government's collapse is premature.

The focus of the confrontation is the Gujarat chief minister, Narendra Modi, who some of the BJP's key allies want sacked, accusing him of failing to curb the Hindu-Muslim violence that has claimed more than 800 lives.

The regional TDP party -- the coalition's largest ally -- has so far stopped short of withdrawing support from the government, but reiterated Monday its demand for Modi's dismissal.

Modi had tendered his resignation to a BJP leadership conclave at the weekend, but the offer was rejected with the party executive directing him to seek a fresh mandate through snap elections.

Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's government has the support of about 310 MPs in the 545-member lower house of parliament, and the loss of the 28 TDP votes would be a severe test of its majority.

The sectarian violence in Gujarat was triggered by the torching of a train carrying Hindu activists by a predominantly Muslim mob in the town of Godhra on February 27, which claimed 58 lives.

While Vajpayee described the consequent riots as a "disgrace" to the country and rebuked Modi's administration, his refusal to sack the chief minister has been angrily denounced by the BJP's political partners.

That anger was further fuelled at the BJP conclave when Vajpayee dropped his moderate Hindu nationalist mask and embarked on an astonishing tirade against Muslims, saying they were unable to live in peace with others.

"It is happening in Indonesia, Malaysia, everywhere. They (Muslims) stay by threatening and frightening others," Vajpayee said.

The media slammed the prime minister's comments and the Times of India went on to describe his party's refusal to dismiss Modi as a "snub to the allies that 'Big Brother' BJP will not allow itself to be arm-twisted on an important political decision."

Political analysts, however, said the BJP's partners were unlikely to go so far as to pull out of the coalition.

"The coalition is not as fragile as we think it is," said Kiran Saxena, a professor of political sciences at Jawaharlal Nehru University -- a sentiment echoed by Subhash Kashyap, an analyst from the Centre for Policy Research.

"The federal coalition as it exists today can be described as a marriage of convenience," Kashyap said.

"The TDP and others will stay within the coalition so long as it seems politicially beneficial to them. As far as seeking Modi's dismissal is concerned, they are doing this to appeal to Muslim constituencies in their own states," he added.

Analyst B.G. Verghese pointed out the BJP's refusal to sack Modi was an indication that it would not let the allies set its agenda.

"What the BJP president Jana Krishnamurthy and some others said was very clear -- that as far as the party is concerned, the allies cannot dictate terms to it," Verghese said.

"There was also an assurance that the government would stick to the coalition's agenda, which was what brought the BJP and others together when they formed the government three years ago. This is what the allies will have to be happy with," he said.

Verghese also stressed that should the TDP and others withdraw support, there were other smaller groups waiting in the wings to join Vajpayee and bolster the coalition's strength.

"So if one is looking for the collapse of the Vajpayee government, it seems unlikely at the moment," he said.

Another factor in favour of the coalition's survival is the main opposition Congress Party's apparent inability to mount a credible challenge.

"The party is a mere bystander... by all accounts there has been no evidence so far of the Congress rousing itself to seize the moment of the BJP-government's embarrassment," the Indian Express newspaper said.

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