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SINGAPORE, Jan 20 (AFP) - India, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam are forecast to be Asia's leading exporters this year with growths ranging between 7.0 to 8.4 percent, the Political and Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC) said.

China, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand should see export growths of between 3.0 to 5.0 percent, PERC said in its latest Asian Intelligence report.

Exports for the ailing Japanese economy should see an increase of 2.0 percent, with Philippines and Hong Kong facing the prospect of flat growth and Indonesia at minus 2.0 percent.

"The coming year's projections assume that no country in Asia will experience a really strong recovery in exports, but that conditions will improve compared with the last year," the report said.

"Exports will probably stay in the negative territory in most countries through the first semester, although the rate of fall should decelerate," it said, adding that the trend could turn positive in the second half.

Prospects for Asian exports this year will depend mainly on developments in the US economy, the Hong Kong-based PERC said.

"There are some faint signs that the US economy might be bottoming out, but a lot could still go wrong, from new terrorist attacks to more Enron-style collapses that seriously erode confidence," it said.

US energy giant Enron crumbled in a matter of weeks last year and a Congressional investigation is underway over how its auditors and officials hid the company's failing financial health from employees and shareholders.

PERC noted that one positive feature for Asia is that the thrust of government initiatives have been toward greater liberalisation rather than protectionism in the face of the economic difficulties.

The trade pact between the United States and Vietnam as well as China's entry into the World Trade Organisation should make tangible impact in the short term, but plans for an East Asian Free Trade Area will take a long time to be felt.

The Washington-Hanoi trade pact should spur Vietnamese exports to grow 7.0 percent this year to 16.23 billion US dollars. India is set to lead the pack with a forecast export growth of 8.4 percent, followed by South Korea at 7.6 percent, and Taiwan, 7.0 percent.

Thailand's export growth is projected at 5.0 percent, Singapore and Malaysia at 4.0 percent and China 3.0 percent.

Last year, economies which were largely dependent on high-tech electronic and telecommunications products for exports like Singapore and Taiwan suffered the most.

Hong Kong exported more traditional consumer products like toys, clothing and footwear, while South Korea offset losses in the electronics sector with stronger growth in automotive and traditional consumer products.

This year, the sectors likely to be hardest hit will be aerospace, energy and telecom, but aerospace will have less impact on the region than the other two.

Prices for oil and gas are likely to remain depressed this year, hurting Asian producers Malaysia and Indonesia.

These two countries are also expected to suffer from weak demand in metal and forestry products with Japan's housing market remaining feeble and the US market still weak.

"One of the bigger unknowns in the coming year is how demand for automobiles in the US will hold up," PERC said.

Brisk US demand in the final quarter of last year due to steep discounts and zero interest financing deals lifted vehicle exports from Japan and South Korea, but a tapering off of demand this year could hurt both countries.

The telecom and tech sectors are unlikely to suffer as badly this year compared to 2001, but recovery will be slow due to overcapacity, PERC said.

Asia's agricultural exports should "do fairly well" this year. Chemicals and petrochemical exports should turnaround in the next 12 months, but the outlook is "brighter" for pharmaceuticals and crop protection chemicals.

For Southeast Asia, the impact of reports indicating that the presence of Islamic militants linked to Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda terrorist network is more extensive than was previously thought remains to be seen, PERC said.

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