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by Maxwell Fernando

The world continues to be pounded by abnormal weather, due to man's indifference towards lesser mortals. The El Nino phenomenon was labelled the weather event of the last century, and is expected to appear more strongly during the new millennium. For these happenings to reach such dimensions in the widely accepted arena, it has necessarily got the world in stress. The unusual weather changes experienced during the latter part of 1997 caused droughts, floods and snow storms around the world, and the experts feel that the worst is yet to come.

On the Pacific ocean, water level on the Panama Canal dropped by 25%. The main passes to the Andes Mountains were blocked by unusual snowfalls. Chile was well disposed, with flowers blooming in the deserts. Copper mines in Papua New Guinea were forced to close down due to low river levels. Rice, maze and coconut crops were threatened in the Philippines.

On the Atlantic side, Northern Brazil faced a severe drought, and the famous beaches in the holiday resort of Rio de Janeiro were washed away. Southern Brazil on the other hand experienced unprecedented rain causing server floods with forest fires reported in the interior. The maize crop in South Africa had to be planted early to avoid the drought, but over 25 million people remained in the throes of a severe drought. The coffee crop in Indonesia was a failure due to the drought, but what worried most was the forest fires that caused a blanket of haze over the entire region.

What is most frightening is the possibility of the malarial mosquito, which at the moment is eradicated in most parts, invading the northern regions, once the temperature begins to rise. Those already living within the malaria zone will find the rate of occurrence of the disease rising by as much as 60%. Thus, the human consequences apart from economic costs would be unfathomable.

The British Meterological office announced that the period November 1996 to November 1997 had been the hottest period on record. That's not all, the nine hottest years since measurements commenced, have come in the last ten years. It has already been proved that the average annual temperature for the earth's surface has already risen by one degree Fahrenheit. This pattern of warming is more pronounced in the Arctic than near the equator, more in the night than during day, and more in winter than in summer.

The warnings of the atmosphere that is normally referred to as the "Green House Effect" is caused by the steady build up of six green house gases, emitted by the burning of petroleum by motor vehicles and coal in power plants. It is estimated that about 20 to 30 billion tons of carbon dioxide are discharged to the air each year, and that there is 30% more carbon dioxide in the air today than in 1860. Under these conditions, it is likely that the earth will heat up by a further degree within the next 20 years.

If this predicament sounds so very critical, it may be prudent at this stage, to ascertain at what stage these changes were first detected, and by whom. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that the temperatures in the Arctic have been on a steady rise since the dawn of the industrial age. This indeed was a revolution, which brought about vast changes in the way people worked and lived.

The industrial revolution started in England in the 1750's when hand methods of manufacture gave way to machine methods. These changes created an industrialised society, where large scale mechanised fabrications replaced farming as their main source of employment. Medium of exchanged changed from goods to money. In a more restricted sense, "Industrial Revolution" refers to the change of a country from an agricultural and commercial economy to an industrial economy. This process was completed in England by about the 1850's. This operation began later in other countries, and in some cases the process is still on. Since the World War II industry and technology have advanced at an ever-increasing rate.

The day is already cast, and these climatic changes have come to stay. Developing countries that hold fast to agriculture, and small island states such as Sri Lanka, are most defenceless to these changes. Some of the latest findings on this subject is most shocking. Sea levels are on a steady rise, and has registered a 10 inch increase during the last century. A further rise of 23 inches is conceived for 2100 and half of that by 2050. With these changes, United States could lose up to 10,000 square miles of coast land. A 24 inch rise in sea levels, would mean that islands such as Maldives, and Nauru could become submerged.

There is extraordinary agreement among ecologists as to the disastrous effects of human activity on the life-support systems of the world. An urgent call has already gone out in all directions, to replenish the earth of all lost possessions, as they see the world as a "Titanic" on a collusion course. To a non-scientists, it may appear as though the world is running out of food to feed the population, and non-toxic air to breathe.

The lifestyles of the more wealthy nations, built up with the aid of science and technology with in-built self destructive features, are openly criticised today. The high rates of consumption and pollution of the limited resources of the earth by the rich stock, makes it impossible for others who are not as fortunate, to live comfortably. This form of life could be challenged on grounds of natural impartiality. Can those who live in the rich world righteously justify a way of life that would be impossible for the rest to enjoy.

To bring a more equitable distribution of resources says Charles Birch, Emeritus Professor, University of Sydney, "The rich must live more simply so that the poor may simply live."

The message on conservation that is already conveyed is very clear. The basic task for all to follow is to reduce as rapidly as possible, the impact of civilisation on the earth's life support combinations. To achieve these objectives, the world must reduce population, reduce consumption and change scientific technologies to eliminate or reduce the eviction of toxic gases into the atmosphere.

This is a problem caused mostly by the rich world. It is said that the impact on the life support systems in the world by a rich person is sixty times that of a person in the poor world. The findings on this subject are very clear. It is the rich that is modelling a harmful structure to the entire world. It is they who release most of the destructive elements into the atmosphere. It is the rich who generate acid rain, and it is the rich that are strip mining the seas of fish, and pushing the world towards a major fishery collapse. It is also said that the horticultural technologies of the rich are destroying soils, and draining underground water supplies. They are disrobing the earth's forest cover to wrap their electronic products.

The rates of destruction that is going on does not end there. It is said to annihilate thousands of species that share the planet with us each year. The world seems to be in a state of turbulence, leading to a massive ravaging of our natural heritage. The relationship between humanity and technological advancements is under siege. It only seems to be the human drama that takes the centre stage, and all others have no favourable value. There is an urgent obligation to call for a new from of moralistic approach to see in all forms of life, some in born value to us.

What is most frightening is that there are no signs of the evil effects of these changes decreasing in the near future. On the contrary they expect these revisions to reappear more frequently. The human outcome and economical damages of global warming, it has been pointed out, are unfathomable, and as such, only a worldwide strategy can realistically address the problem.

The question of global warming is discussed at the highest levels today, but there had been rather conflicting views expressed. The European community has reognised the gravity of the situation, and calls for immediate action. United states on the other hand, do not observe the problem to be so disparate, so as to call for instant proceeding on the matter, and prefers a long term market oriented response.

It has been suggested by the European Union for all developed countries to agree to a reeducation of 15% of their lethal emissions from 1990 levels by 2010, and the developing countries to be absolved. Unfortunately, the United States was not ready to go with this proposal, as they desired to keep the pace of their industrial development undisturbed. They were advocating flexibility in the measure of their submissions amongst the developed nations, but wanted all developing nations to make a firm commitment towards this end.

Today, the rich industrialised nations have reached the highest levels of development by polluting the atmosphere. After having attained the top status, they are now trying to suppress the growth and prosperity of the developing countries by curtailing their industrial emissions. Are we fast approaching another form of industrial colonisation?

This is a problem of the present contemporary civilisation associated with production and consumption based on a market economy. Unfortunately, a market economy is not always friendly towards its environment. The developed nations want to maintain their lead in the industrial world, at the expanse of the third world nations. It is they who are called upon to establish the guidelines for a better world, without the developed nations having to do anything with it. The poor nations have been very emphatic in their views. The forty-one developing countries that signed the Beijing Declaration were of the view that the developed countries that have caused so much of destruction to the world, should be called upon to pay damages if they are to join others in curtailing pollution.

China along with the developing nations requested the developed countries to stabilise their poisonous emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000. The developing countries too were going to take part in this operation, but requested compensation if their exports were harmed in any way by the actions of the developed countries. It is most unfortunate that the developed countries are viewing this problem mainly from a commercial angle.

At last some headway has been made in this regard. After eleven days of frenzied negotiations by 159 nations, some kind of consensus was reached at the last conference held in Kyoto in December 1997. The first hurdle towards arriving at a general agreement on this subject has now been cleared. All countries that took part for deliberations in Kyoto, accepted in principle the scientific findings on the harmful effects of global warming. The year 1990 was regarded the base year, and the European Community agreed to reduce their emissions by 8%, Japan by 6%, and the United States by 7% on 1990 levels. All these objectives to are be reached during 2008 and 2012.

All this only means that the entire world desperately needs to discover a vision for the future. This calls for a complete change of attitudes, and more so for the people living in the developed regions. This calls for less burning of coal, oil and natural gases, through energy efficient motor vehicles, and home appliances. We should turn to the environment more often, and obtain the resources freely available in wind and cosmic power.

The world today is getting more and more conscious of material advancement. All that matters is increased GNT, reduced inflation, and overseas debt. The developed countries in particular, should adjust their sights for the future. Instead of measuring their wealth in terms of economic growth they should now set their eyes on a more worthy goal. There is indeed such a goal, which is within reach, and all could aspire to achieve it. It is for healthy people in a healthy environment, which include the non-human creatures who share the world with us.

We should be willing to pay the price for the redemption of the earth we inhabit in terms of a revolution in values, in lifestyles, in economic and political goals, and even in the nature of the science and technology we practise. The stage is now set. Whether the play can be performed before the theatre burns down remains to be seen.

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